Kustav, The Mother Of All Storms

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Experience is perhaps one of the mankind's most useful tools - and explains just why the world is watching the progress of Hurricane Gustav with such stunned horror; it's arrival, size and destination all redolent of Hurricane Katrina which devastated parts of the Gulf Coast almost exactly three years ago.

To be fair, any hurricane measuring above 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale is cause for concern, particularly in that part of the world where the warm Gulf waters feed these monster storms with the energy they need for ultimate destruction, right up to the moment they hit land.

So Gustav started off as a hurricane, was downgraded to a tropical storm, picked up force again as it charged towards the superheated waters close to Cuba and is now forecast to become a superstorm - Category 5 - as it passes through the Gulf of Mexico. Like Katrina three years ago, however, it may well be that Gustav will lose a little ferocity, making landfall as a category 4.

Category 4 or 5, it really doesn't matter. What is important is that Hurricane Gustav is heading for New Orleans - again. Three years ago, despite a last minute attempt at evacuation, the collapse of the levees that protect this low-lying area led to 1800 deaths as floodwaters swamped 80% of the city.

Hurricane Gustav is strong, packing winds of up to 150 mph. It is huge, with storm force winds extending out 175 miles from the eye of the storm and it also threatens frightening storm surges, the like of which will obliterate even the rebuilt levees of the bruised and battered New Orleans.

Lessons have been learned. By Sunday night, New Orleans airport will be shut. The population, which had just returned to around 80% of the pre-Katrina figure, will have been mandatorily evacuated, with the Mayor making it crystal clear that anyone wishing to resist evacuation would do so at their own risk.

Pets are being safely moved, practical precautions being taken to protect property, and a state of emergency has already been declared. The city will lock down until the storm has passed through, with police and National Guard on standby to prevent the looting and lawlessness that added insult to the injury of Katrina's devastation.

So whilst New Orleans will almost undoubtedly suffer another severe lashing - and a degree of flooding seems inevitable - it does seem that all the measures that can be taken, have been taken.

Potentially, it could be two days before this hurricane makes landfall, and herein lies the second area of worry - where? Subject to the wanton elements of nature, these huge areas of vorticity are notoriously fickle and forecasters will be working at fever pitch to correctly identify exactly where along that Gulf Coast Gustav is going to cause the most damage.

With the benefit of experience, New Orleans will be a ghost town with few to bear eye witness to the storm's arrival - but along the coast one has to hope that all those oil-producing rigs have been evacuated and locked down, and that places such as Morgan City, Port Arthur, Galveston and Houston have some contingency plan should they suddenly find themselves in the path of the hurricane.